… Assuming the GOP nominee for the White House is either Trump or Ted Cruz, we think the Democrats will fare reasonably well down-ballot (more so with Trump than Cruz, though Cruz will also have a difficult time carrying many swing states). As shown in Chart 1, in recent presidential […] Read more »
A very bad week for Trump, but he’s still the favorite to win the GOP nomination
Donald Trump had a very bad week last week, but is still the favored [sic] to win the Republican nomination. While the Republican elites do not favor his nomination, there are two key shifts after this week. First, polling in Wisconsin, which votes on Tuesday April 5, is starting to […] Read more »
Donald Trump, The Revenant and Herding in Prediction Markets: A Cautionary Tale
… As history has repeatedly demonstrated; bubbles, crashes, manias and panics are inextricably part of the fabric of financial markets. It would be unreasonable to suppose the same cannot take place in prediction markets. The implication is clear and profound; conflating the market’s estimate of reality with reality itself can […] Read more »
The prediction markets were right about Tuesday’s primaries. So what do they say about November?
The 10 March 15 primaries (five Democratic and five Republican) went just as expected, if you were following the prediction markets. CONT. David Rothschild, The Monkey Cage Read more »
Combining forecasts predicts a Democratic win in this year’s election
… Since 2004, PollyVote.com has demonstrated the benefits of combining forecasts for election forecasting by averaging forecasts within and across different methods, namely polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, citizen forecasts, and quantitative models. Across the last three US presidential elections, PollyVote’s final forecast missed the final election outcome on average […] Read more »
A Simple Model for Predicting Hillary Clinton’s Vote in the March 15 Democratic Primaries
A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s […] Read more »