… Since 2004, PollyVote.com has demonstrated the benefits of combining forecasts for election forecasting by averaging forecasts within and across different methods, namely polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, citizen forecasts, and quantitative models. Across the last three US presidential elections, PollyVote’s final forecast missed the final election outcome on average by little more than half a percentage point. …
For the 2016 election, PollyVote currently predicts the Democrats to win 52.7 percent of the national popular two-party vote, compared to 47.3 percent for the Republicans. Interestingly, there is some disagreement among the component methods. While the econometric models that rely on retrospective voting have the Republican Party in the lead, the remaining six component methods predict the Democrats to win. CONT.
Andreas Graefe, USAPP