Almost certainly, after the July nominating conventions, the Democratic presidential nominee will be heavily favored to win the general election. (The “almost” leaves room for a dark horse candidate to win a contested convention.) That’s despite the fact that if you relied on ordinary forecasting — “fundamental models,” built on […] Read more »
How Google Trends Predicted Donald Trump’s Rise, and What It Means For Polling
What are the most important issues in a political campaign? As Donald Trump has risen to the top of the Republican primary field, pundits have speculated especially on what motivates his supporters, and what it may mean for the future of American politics. Pollsters are certainly interested in this as […] Read more »
Donald Trump Beat Expectations Everywhere, Suggesting a Broad Shift
After just about every primary night this year, we’ve written something like “Donald Trump stayed on a narrow but clear path to the Republican nomination.” After Tuesday night, Mr. Trump has never had a wider path to a majority of pledged delegates. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »
Election markets: A big upward swing for Trump, a consolidation of a commanding lead for Clinton
PredictWise’s market-based forecasts have Donald Trump 76% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 96% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% to win the general election. […] Read more »
Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries
Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode […] Read more »
State of election markets
PredictWise’s market-based forecasts midday on April 17, 2016: Donald Trump is 62% to be the Republican nominee for president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is 92% to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America, and the Democratic nominee for president is 74% […] Read more »