The results of the presidential primary race are in, and the New York Times’ media columnist has declared a loser: journalism. “Wrong, wrong, wrong,” writes Jim Rutenberg. “To the very end, we got it wrong.” … By “we,” however, it soon becomes clear that Rutenberg does not mean journalists like […] Read more »
New Electoral Scorecard Ratings in 13 States
This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate – women, millennials, independents and Latinos – make him the initial November underdog. As a […] Read more »
Nate Silver Defends FiveThirtyEight’s Missed Call on Donald Trump Nomination
Nate Silver, founder and head stat-master of ESPN’s data-driven FiveThirtyEight, explained how the site failed to predict Donald Trump would win the Republican Party presidential nomination — saying it resulted from a reliance on using history as a guide. “I’m glad we didn’t predict something as crazy as a Trump […] Read more »
The Republican Horse Race Is Over, and Journalism Lost
Wrong, wrong, wrong — to the very end, we got it wrong. … You can continue to blame all the wrong calls this year on new challenges in telephone polling when so many Americans — especially the young — do not have landlines and are therefore hard to track down. […] Read more »
Clinton Opens at 70% Against Trump
… Trump is trailing models of where the generic Republican should be at the start of the election. … He is going to start out at about 30% to win the election where the generic Republican versus the generic Democrat should be about 47% (or you could say Clinton is […] Read more »
Poll Modeling Says: No, Bernie Sanders Is Not More Electable
Bernie Sanders, facing a virtually insurmountable climb to win the Democratic nomination through pledged delegates, has turned to trying to convince superdelegates that he is more electable. Sanders is doing this by pointing at current polling which does indeed show him performing stronger against Donald Trump or the other Republicans […] Read more »