As the Crystal Ball has noted repeatedly since early 2017, the Senate elections in the 2018 cycle feature two contrasting forces: highly polarized, partisan voting in elections running up against a tendency for non-presidential party incumbents to do well in midterms, even in states that backed the other party in […] Read more »
5 metrics that suggest Democrats are poised for big wins 100 days to the midterms
We’re now just 100 days away from the midterms, and the big question on everyone’s mind is whether Democrats will net-gain 23 seats and gain control of the House of Representatives. A look at five different metrics suggests that Democrats are favored to take back the House, though each of […] Read more »
Scott Walker’s troubles highlight deeper GOP issues in governors’ races
… A Marist College poll gives Democrat Tony Evers a 54% to 41% lead over Republican Gov. Scott Walker in the Wisconsin gubernatorial election. This poll is more optimistic for Evers, the most likely Democratic nominee, than the only previous nonpartisan poll of the race. Walker led Evers by a […] Read more »
The Bottom Line in Republicans’ 42 Open Seats
With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930. The retirements of Speaker Paul Ryan (WI-01), as well as powerful committee chairs like Reps. Ed Royce (CA-39) and Rodney Frelinghuysen […] Read more »
Are Democrats losing or winning?
Two months ago, we were deluged with seemingly dismal news for Democrats. Newsweek’s headline asked, “Are Democrats Losing Their 2018 Midterm Advantage?” If the question itself left anyone in doubt, the headline went on to offer an answer: “A New Poll Says Yes.” CNN claimed “Democrats’ 2018 advantage is nearly […] Read more »
Polling Still Points to Rough November for Republicans
If you trust the July 9-11 Fox News poll and the July 15-18 NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey — and I have no reason not to — the GOP still looks headed for a difficult election and the likely loss of the House. No, President Donald Trump’s voters are not […] Read more »