As soon as President Donald Trump was elected, the national political dynamics immediately changed. Democrats, somnolent in off-year elections in the Obama years (and also in 2016, at least in some key places), would re-energize. The historical burden of holding the White House transferred to the Republicans, and the president’s […] Read more »
A Democratic Blue Wave? Don’t Forget the Republicans’ Big Hill
Democrats are optimistic about riding a so-called blue wave to control of the House this November, and it’s easy to see why. The president’s approval rating is in the low 40s, the Democrats have a comfortable lead in generic congressional polls, and it’s a midterm election year. Historically, it’s a […] Read more »
(Mis)interpreting elections
From our first appearance on earth, human beings have searched for meaning. We naturally incline toward interpreting events and ascribing significance to them. … There are both the intrinsic and extrinsic pressures to find meaning in the events of the day and particularly in election results. However, such assessments often […] Read more »
Why House Control Is Getting the Headlines
This year is one of the few in memory when the fight for control of the House is getting more attention than the one for the Senate, normally the more glamorous of the two. The Senate could flip from Republican to Democratic, but there’s about a one-in-three chance of that, […] Read more »
How to Interpret 2018 Polls Without Fooling Yourself
This morning, many political junkies, bleary-eyed from staying up to watch and then ponder the president’s SCOTUS Reality Show last night, were greeted with this tweet from the CEO of Axios: 🚨 Brutal poll: Democrats’ Senate dream slips away https://t.co/bXZ4wiwqn5 — Jim VandeHei (@JimVandeHei) July 10, 2018 The full Axios […] Read more »
Poll Hub: A House Divided
Poll Hub celebrates its fiftieth episode! On this special episode, the Poll Hub team clears up a bit of confusion. Dr. Lee M. Miringoff found himself amid a Twitterstorm last week about comments he made during a recent interview on the Hill.tv’s, What America’s Thinking. Find out just what Dr. […] Read more »