The outcome of the Democratic primary in New York’s 14th House District last month made headlines worldwide. The upset of a 20-year incumbent renewed debate over the validity of political polling . People took notice when 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez bumped off 10-term incumbent Congressman Joe Crowley 58 to 42 percent. […] Read more »
This poll shows why it’s difficult for Democrats to take the Senate
… A new Mason-Dixon poll in North Dakota puts Republican Kevin Cramer ahead of Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp 48% to 44%. Republican Donald Trump won the state by 36 points in 2016. … Polls indicate that the national environment will favor Democrats this fall. If every Senate seat were up […] Read more »
Democrats so far are playing a good defense in fight for Senate control
The Senate map for Democrats this fall is daunting. Republicans are only defending nine Senate seats up for reelection, while Democrats are defending 26 seats. Moreover, 10 of the Democratic-held seats are in states Donald Trump won in 2016 and five are in states he won by about 20 points […] Read more »
Back to the Future With Party ID
It’s morning again in America. You grab your first cup of coffee, click to your favorite news site and are greeted by a new poll with a huge generic ballot spike in the congressional vote. What should your reaction be? Is it time to freak out, or calm down and […] Read more »
Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction
In 2016, President Donald Trump narrowly carried Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a combined 67,000 or so votes to defeat Hillary Clinton and carry the two states’ combined 30 electoral votes. Those victories, along with Trump’s 10,000-vote win in Michigan, seemingly signaled an end to the “Blue Wall” that supposedly gave […] Read more »
They’re under 50%, but Democrats should feel good about their Senate chances in Pennsylvania
… The poll of the week: A new Franklin and Marshall poll that puts Democratic Sen. Bob Casey ahead of his Republican opponent Lou Barletta 44% to 27%. It’s the latest poll that has Casey with a double-digit lead over Barletta. … Barletta’s campaign put some interesting spin on the […] Read more »