Perhaps, the great Yogi Berra said it best — It’s deja vu all over again! The lack of distinction between public opinion polls and forecasters in 2016 created a false aura of inevitability around Hillary Clinton. Two years later, pollsters witness emerging, untested polling methods that run the risk of […] Read more »
Two Ways of Thinking About Election Predictions and What They Tell Us About 2018
To understand the differences between quantitative, data-driven predictions and those made from traditional, data-influenced handicapping, one should direct their attention to the names of two websites: Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and my blog, The Crosstab. One is a reference to the soothsayer, a […] Read more »
The House Blue Wave Is Alive and Well
For the last couple of months, I’ve heard from many quarters that the “blue wave” has dissipated. Meh. … In fact, there is an abundance of evidence that Democratic House prospects are as good as they have been for months and the House is still very likely to flip. CONT. […] Read more »
Polls Apart
… The most recent WSJ/NBC News poll contains some welcome news for President Trump and Republicans: Nearly two-thirds of Americans are satisfied with the nation’s economy, one of the highest ratings since Bill Clinton left the White House in 2001. Trump’s approval rating has climbed to 44 percent, the highest […] Read more »
A blue wave could happen and still hit a wall
As we get closer to November, I gain confidence that an electoral “wave” will develop the likes of 1946, 1994, 2006 and 2010. Unlike the elections in those years, however, I’m not sure a wave will necessarily mean the minority party will wrestle away control of the House. How is […] Read more »
Maine: Ranked-Choice Means Primary Polling Is Even Less Reliable
Polling in primary elections has always been difficult, due to typically-low voter turnout. But experts say it is even more arduous when voters are surveyed about their preferences under the new ranked-choice voting law. CONT. Mal Leary, Maine Public Read more »