As soon as President Donald Trump was elected, the national political dynamics immediately changed. Democrats, somnolent in off-year elections in the Obama years (and also in 2016, at least in some key places), would re-energize. The historical burden of holding the White House transferred to the Republicans, and the president’s party has lost ground in 36 of 39 House midterms since the Civil War with an average loss of 33 seats. In the more recent past, since the end of World War II, the average seat loss is 26 seats, or right on the borderline of the 23 net seats the Democrats need to elect a House majority. …
Yet, to this point, we’ve hesitated to come out and make the Democrats a favorite in the House. …
So what’s changed? Why do we now tilt the House to the Democrats? CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball