Results from the Washington state primary on Tuesday are another bad sign for Republicans. We already know that Democrats lead in the House polls, and Republicans have a lot more seats at risk. Republicans therefore are hoping that the polling and the race ratings are overstating their vulnerability. They may […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Should The Press Respond To Trump’s Attacks?
President Trump’s attacks on the press have reached a new level in recent weeks. On Sunday, he called the press, “very dangerous & sick” and wrote that the media can “cause War.” The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team talks about what the goal of the president’s rhetoric is and how the […] Read more »
65 races will decide the House. Here’s how Democrats could take control.
With 95 days to go until Election Day, the House majority is up for grabs. President Donald Trump’s below-average approval ratings, Democrats’ enthusiasm edge and a historic number of GOP open seats make Democrats the slight favorites to take control in the lower chamber. But what’s their route to picking […] Read more »
What Ohio’s special election will tell us about November
The Ohio special election in the 12th Congressional District is coming down to the wire. In the last major tea leaves before the 2018 midterms, an average of recent polls puts Republican Troy Balderson just ahead of Democrat Danny O’Connor in their bid to succeed Republican Pat Tiberi. In a […] Read more »
Polls and history continue to point to a Ted Cruz victory in Texas
A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that Republican Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 49% to 43% lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the Texas US Senate race. Cruz has led in every poll of the race taken in the last year. The average poll over the last two months has […] Read more »
What August Ratings Can Tell Us About November Results
In July of 2006, The Cook Political Report rated just 14 GOP-held seats as highly vulnerable. By November, the number of GOP-held seats in danger had tripled to 43. We saw a similar pattern in 2010. In August of that year, we listed 36 Democratic-held seats as highly vulnerable. By […] Read more »