In 1982, as a young opposition researcher at the National Republican Congressional Committee, one of “my candidates” was an equally young John Kasich running in Ohio’s 12th District. He was the only GOP challenger to win in that first off-year election of the Reagan presidency, and Republicans have held the […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information
Abstract: We forecast party control of the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm election. First, we model the expected national vote relying on available generic Congressional polls and the party of the president. Second, we model the district vote based primarily on results from 2016 and the national swing. […] Read more »
The House: Ratings Changes in the Aftermath of Another Nail-Biter Special Election
Is there such a thing as a moral victory in politics? Democrats hope so in OH-12. While the race remains uncalled, it appears as though state Sen. Troy Balderson (R) will squeak by Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) in a closely-watched special election in this traditionally Republican district that […] Read more »
What the 2016 Elections Taught Us About Uncertainty
I am frequently asked what the “surprise elections” will be this fall. After all, there are always a few races whose outcome—or near outcome, the results much closer than expected—seem to come out of the blue. … The surprise outcome in November 2016 was the disparity between the state-level polls […] Read more »
Rating Changes in Five GOP-Held Seats
Republican Troy Balderson’s razor-thin apparent victory over Democrat Danny O’Connor in yesterday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th CD comes as a big relief to Republicans, including neighboring NRCC Chair Steve Stivers and the Congressional Leadership Fund, which spent $3.1 million to defend the seat. But the outcome doesn’t alter Democrats’ […] Read more »
The Ohio Results Point to Democratic Strength in 2018—and a Showdown in 2020
The results in Ohio’s special House election Tuesday night reinforced the electoral trends that have driven American politics since Donald Trump’s election—and underscored the precarious political trade the president is imposing on his party. Republican Troy Balderson’s slim advantage over Democrat Danny O’Connor in a district Republicans have held without […] Read more »