Tuesday’s bombshell developments — the conviction of President Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, followed in swift succession by a guilty plea from the president’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, that seemed to implicate the president in a scheme to skirt campaign finance laws — may very well not move the […] Read more »
30 House Ratings Shift in Favor of Democrats, 2 Move Toward GOP
Labor Day is supposed to be the official start of general election season, but many of the top House and Senate races are well underway. In fact, the campaign trail has been so busy that Inside Elections recently issued 32 race ratings changes, most in favor of the Democrat in […] Read more »
Why Even a Blue Wave Could Have Limited Gains
The proper way to view the 2018 midterms might not be as one event, but as two very different elections playing out at once. It’s almost Mars vs. Venus: The Senate hinges on red, rural states where Democrats are on defense. But the House will be decided by swing, suburban […] Read more »
Democrats in stronger position to take the House: CBS News Battleground Tracker
Democrats have improved their standing in the fight for control of the House of Representatives. Our House model now shows the party poised to win 222 seats if the election were today, up from our estimate of 219 earlier this summer. The range on that estimate is plus or minus […] Read more »
Handicapping Trump’s Chances in 2020
… My hunch is that Trump will face a very difficult general-election fight if he chooses to run in 2020, but I would not lean on the 2018 midterm results as any kind of indicator. Clinton and Obama, for example, both had devastating midterm elections yet went on to victories […] Read more »
How FiveThirtyEight’s House Model Works
We’ve been publishing election models for more than 10 years now, and FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 House model is probably the most work we’ve ever put into one of them. That’s mostly because it just uses a lot of data. … The principles behind the House forecast should be familiar to FiveThirtyEight […] Read more »