… My hunch is that Trump will face a very difficult general-election fight if he chooses to run in 2020, but I would not lean on the 2018 midterm results as any kind of indicator. Clinton and Obama, for example, both had devastating midterm elections yet went on to victories two years later. Similarly, simply having bad job-approval numbers at this point are of little predictive value. …
The warning light for supporters of President Trump should be his seeming inability, or perhaps unwillingness, to expand his base. It would seem to be advisable for someone who captured the office with just 46 percent of the popular vote, 2.1 percentage points and 2.9 million votes less than his opponent had. CONT.
Charlie Cook