We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election Using National Polls and District Information
The Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien team first applied our model in 2006 and were among the first to predict the return of the Democratic majority. That forecast was off by only two seats. Like most others, our model predicted a Republican takeover in 2010, underestimating the GOP swing by about 10 seats. In […] Read more »
Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs Release New Midterm Election Forecasting Tools
The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. CONT. U. of Virginia Center for […] Read more »
Is the Senate Up for Grabs Yet?
President Donald Trump’s problems continue to mount, raising more questions about turnout and how independent voters and college-educated women will vote. But the Senate map remains daunting for Democrats, and the polarized nature of our politics continues to limit Democrats’ Senate prospects. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Read more »
Forecast Calls for Legislative Paralysis in the Next Congress
So who will be in charge in Washington next year? Right now, The Cook Political Report is forecasting that the most likely midterm-election outcome in the House is Democrats picking up between 20 and 40 seats, with a 30-seat net gain a plausible guess. A Democratic gain of 23 seats […] Read more »
A new poll shows 5 big challenges facing the Republicans in November
With the midterm election less than three months away, there is considerable agreement among forecasters on the Democrats’ chances of regaining a House majority: 73 percent (538), 70 percent (The Economist), 67 percent (PredictIt), 67 percent (Good Judgment) and 64 percent (Predictwise). Now, a new GW Politics Poll provides a […] Read more »