For over six months this column has suggested that this election amounts to a Democratic tidal wave crashing against a Republican seawall—the question is which will be stronger. At Labor Day, the traditional beginning of the general-election-campaign season, that continues to be the case, though how that dynamic manifests itself […] Read more »
A Back-of-the-Envelope Look at How the House Could Flip
Count the House races, and you’ll get a pretty good idea of whether the House will flip in the fall. No, you can’t be entirely certain how an individual toss-up contest is going to turn out in November. But you can arrive at a ballpark assessment of House changes right […] Read more »
Senate 2018: At Least for Now, the Elephant Endures
With Labor Day in the rearview mirror, the race to Election Day is on. The national picture remains favorable to Democrats, but because of the Senate playing field, the Republican majority still will be difficult for Democrats to dislodge even in an optimal environment. One oddity as we reach the […] Read more »
Democrats Are In Their Best Position Yet To Retake The House
If Labor Day is the traditional inflection point in the midterm campaign — the point when the election becomes something that’s happening right now — then Democrats should feel pretty good about where they stand in their quest to win the U.S. House. Although it can be a noisy indicator, […] Read more »
8 questions for the midterm elections: A blue wave or not?
Campaign 2018 begins the final stretch this week. All but a few states have finished their primaries, and the general election ballots are set almost everywhere. The stakes are difficult to overstate. Republicans today control the White House, the House and Senate. President Trump dominates the scene. But Democrats could […] Read more »
Democrats’ uphill House climb isn’t as steep as we thought
… Importantly, the generic ballot is one of a number of tools that can be used to figure out how many seats each party will win in the House. On this measure Democrats have picked up ground since the beginning of the year. For a slew of reasons (gerrymandering, Democratic voters […] Read more »