… Importantly, the generic ballot is one of a number of tools that can be used to figure out how many seats each party will win in the House. On this measure Democrats have picked up ground since the beginning of the year.
For a slew of reasons (gerrymandering, Democratic voters packing themselves into cities and the incumbency advantage), we’ve known for a while that Democrats would need to win a lot more votes than Republicans to take a majority of seats in the House.
The exact margin though is likely to be smaller than we thought it would be at the beginning of the cycle. It may be closer to 6 points than 8 points. And while 6 is still significantly greater than 0, it’s much more doable than 8. CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN