… With Trump’s job approval rating holding well below the 50% mark, the Republican majority is facing such a strong combination of political, personal and historical headwinds that many political observers think a “blue wave” will sweep Democrats into power in the U.S. Congress for 2019-2020. Trump is not on […] Read more »
After primaries, Democrats have historic vote lead
For months now, enthusiasm among Democratic voters has been a dominant 2018 theme in polls and interviews. Now that the primaries are over, a look at the total primary vote in U.S. House races this year shows that the chatter is more than just talk. Democrats have been turning out […] Read more »
House control edges toward Democrats – CBS News poll
Democrats remain in a stronger position than Republicans to win the House of Representatives, with their chances having gradually improved over the summer. We estimate that Democrats would win 224 seats if the elections were held today, which is more than the 218 needed for a majority. CONT. Kabir Khanna […] Read more »
America’s political pollsters could be missing the X factor in the 2018 elections — “hidden voters”
… The question that keeps emerging is who is not on pollsters’ 2018 radar. That matters greatly because between now and November’s vote, there will be a tsunami of horse race coverage delivered in authoritative tones. However, pollsters will tell you that their analyses are more vaporous; that they are […] Read more »
Can A Democrat Really Win A Senate Race In Tennessee? Or Mississippi?!?!
Republicans don’t have a lot of exposure in the Senate this year — but they’re doing what they can to help Democrats make the most of it. The GOP entered this election cycle with only eight of their own seats up for grabs. Republican incumbents retired in three of those […] Read more »
How the Republicans Fell for Trump’s Overconfidence Game
The topic never pops up in statistical analyses or pundit roundtables on cable TV, but one of the most underappreciated factors shaping politics is overconfidence. … All this brings us to the most laughable manifestation of overconfidence in the 2018 campaign. It comes courtesy of an internal Republican National Committee […] Read more »