The topic never pops up in statistical analyses or pundit roundtables on cable TV, but one of the most underappreciated factors shaping politics is overconfidence. …
All this brings us to the most laughable manifestation of overconfidence in the 2018 campaign. It comes courtesy of an internal Republican National Committee poll obtained by Joshua Green of Bloomberg Businessweek.
The survey, conducted in early September, found that 57 percent of devoted Trump supporters believe there is absolutely no chance the Democrats can take back the House. As the accompanying report, written by the polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, bluntly states, “We need to make real the threat that Democrats have a good shot of winning control of Congress.”
Think about this for a moment. Convinced that polls are rigged for the Democrats (remember 2016) and conditioned by a president who denounces all criticism as “Fake News,” strong Trump backers have convinced themselves that the Republican Congress is an impregnable fortress. CONT.
Walter Shapiro, Roll Call