Suddenly the political world seems to realize that the Senate is in play, concluding that the expected Democratic wave, which has made a turnover in the House very likely, is now starting to swamp the Senate as well. … The reality is that there are a lot of very close […] Read more »
Will Democratic Senators Lose Despite The ‘Blue Wave’?
… In soccer, the most obvious advantage of having a man advantage after an opposing player has been sent off on a red card is that it’s much easier to score goals. But what’s nearly as important is that it becomes very difficult for the other team to score a […] Read more »
Democrats may have more polling upside in House races than GOP
… The New York Times and Siena College have released multiple House polls over the last week. … The polls produced by Siena and the Times generally point to a House where Democrats have a slight advantage, though Republicans could still retain control. … I went back since the 2006 […] Read more »
House Polls Show Very Close Races but Also Hints of Democratic Strength
With just under two months until the midterms, the races that seem likely to decide control of Congress remain strikingly close, according to a first wave of New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls. To take over the House, Democrats need to wrest at least 23 individual districts from Republican control. […] Read more »
Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models
We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. CONT. Charles Tien (CUNY) & Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. […] Read more »
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections
The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical […] Read more »