A Republican winning a US Senate race in deep blue New Jersey? It hasn’t happened since 1972. Yet new polls show Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez in trouble against Republican Bob Hugin. Three high-quality polls released over the last two days give Menendez a lead of anywhere from just 2 to […] Read more »
It’s Trump, Not Kavanaugh, Who Will Matter in November
When I first got involved in politics in the 1970s, we had 24-hour news cycles. Today they’re more like 24 minutes, if that. Cable television and news alerts now on our phones have transformed what was a steady trickle of headlines into a fire hose of news and, increasingly, opinion. […] Read more »
House Rating Changes: Eight More GOP Seats Move Towards Democrats
Five weeks out, several personally popular Republicans who appeared to be defying the “blue wave” in Clinton-won districts are beginning to see their leads erode. GOP Reps. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), John Katko (NY-24) and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) led most surveys over the summer but are now prime targets as their […] Read more »
The Florida Senate race may be moving away from Republican Rick Scott
… A new Marist College poll finds that Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson holds a 48% to 45% advantage over Republican Rick Scott. Two other gold standard polls out this week from the University of North Florida and Quinnipiac University give Nelson an average 3.5 point lead. … A Scott win […] Read more »
The Senate: How 2018 Sets Up 2020
The 2018 Senate races are important not just for determining the majority next January, but also for setting up both parties for the next election. … If Republicans can net a seat or two this year, it would make their position much stronger in 2020, much like their strong showing […] Read more »
House Rating Changes: Five More Races Move Towards Democrats
Six weeks out, Republican ads aiming to disqualify Democrats early don’t appear to be sticking. House polling — both public and private — was already tenuous for the GOP, but has become noticeably more dire since Labor Day. Independent polls in the last two weeks show Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45), […] Read more »