The nomination fight over Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh has injected new volatility into the midterm elections, reshaping races across the country and sharpening the already bitterly partisan tone for the final four-week stretch before Nov. 6. Much uncertainty remains — not least because of the rapid-fire succession of evolving crises […] Read more »
Trust the polls: Heidi Heitkamp is in trouble
… Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats to take back the Senate in November. While Democrats hold small leads in the currently Republican-held seats in Arizona and Nevada, a loss in North Dakota would leave them with a net gain of only 1 seat. … Perhaps because of […] Read more »
What Nate Silver’s Worried About
On this week’s episode of my podcast, I Have to Ask, I spoke to Nate Silver, the election forecaster and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Below is an edited excerpt from the show. In it, we discuss how the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination might impact November’s election, the ups […] Read more »
How Kavanaugh Could Boost Turnout
It’s hard to have a conversation about politics in recent weeks without it quickly turning to President Trump’s nomination of federal Appeals Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. … People ask, “What impact do you think the Kavanaugh nomination will have on the midterm elections?” My […] Read more »
Ratings Changes: House, Senate, and Governor
As we enter the final month of Campaign 2018, the political world remains fixated on embattled U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who awaits the findings of an FBI investigation into whether he tried to sexually assault Dr. Christine Blasey Ford while both were in high school. The allegations, somewhat […] Read more »
Is Kavanaugh Helping Republicans’ Midterm Chances?
In midterm elections, with different candidates on the ballot in every state and district, it’s rare to see the sort of sharp, turn-on-a-dime shifts in the polls that we frequently saw during the 2016 presidential election, for example. Instead, races are more localized. But the past few weeks — during […] Read more »