One of the many ways of slicing and dicing this year’s Senate contests is to look at them this way. In order to win the majority, Democrats need to win at least one of the following three contests: North Dakota, Tennessee, or Texas. And we now favor Republicans, at least […] Read more »
Republicans Need a Cold Compress With Less Than One Month to Go
Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities. From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and […] Read more »
What’s Behind Democrats’ Shrinking Senate Odds?
Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate are up to about a 4 in 5 (79 percent), according to the “Classic” version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Republicans have always been favored to hold the Senate, but that’s nevertheless a meaningful improvement from recent weeks, when their odds were generally hovering between […] Read more »
Beware Kavanaugh Narratives, Final-Month Musings Unlikely to Change November Outcomes
… President Trump certainly is trying to use wedge issues to energize his supporters, and there may well be an uptick in GOP enthusiasm after the recent Supreme Court fight. But, based on the past, I’m skeptical the Kavanaugh fight will fundamentally change next month’s outcomes. Republicans won the Kavanaugh […] Read more »
Democrats’ advantage in recent polls may not bring the ‘blue wave’ they’re hoping for
Polls this year show that Democratic voters have become “energized” enough to swing control of at least one branch of Congress in the coming midterm election. But data from past midterm “waves” suggest that Democrats could be headed for a disappointing November. CONT. John W. Schoen, CNBC Read more »
Battle for the House Has a Wide Range of Possible Outcomes
The size of the Democratic advantage in the fight for control of the House is unclear with a month until the midterm elections, and there are recent signs Republicans might have improved their position, possibly because of the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. … High-quality national, […] Read more »