Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate are up to about a 4 in 5 (79 percent), according to the “Classic” version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Republicans have always been favored to hold the Senate, but that’s nevertheless a meaningful improvement from recent weeks, when their odds were generally hovering between 2 in 3 (67 percent) and 7 in 10 (70 percent) instead.
This means Republicans have left what you might call the “Hillary Clinton zone” — the name I mentally assign to 70-ish percent chances where you’re only a normal-sized polling error away from losing the election. Less snarkily, Republicans have escaped a situation where Democrats could win the Senate merely by winning all the toss-up races. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight