… Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error. … Right now, there are an amazing nine races that are within 6 […] Read more »
Why The House And Senate Are Moving In Opposite Directions
At first, I was a little skeptical of the narrative that Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process could send the House and Senate moving in opposite directions. Usually in politics, a rising tide lifts all boats — so whichever party benefited from the Supreme Court nominee’s confirmation would expect to see […] Read more »
Democratic hopes of taking the Senate look as dim as ever
… Republican hopes of holding the Senate look as bright as ever. Thanks to clear Republican advantages in North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas in our forecast, the Democratic path to a Senate majority is currently blocked. All of those races are within the margin of error, but they aren’t razor […] Read more »
Two Elections: Democrats’ Chance of Taking the Senate Fading, House Likely to Flip
The Democrats’ chances of netting at least two Senate seats always seemed like a long shot. But a month ago, the stars looked to be aligning for them. Today, those stars tell a different story. … For months, it has looked as if Democrats would capture the House and Republicans […] Read more »
House Rating Changes: Post-Kavanaugh Polls Reveal an Even More Polarized Landscape
It’s not saying much, but House Republicans have seen more bright spots in the past week of polling since the Kavanaugh confirmation fight than they saw in over a month. Both sides agree Democrats’ enthusiasm advantage has narrowed, and Republicans are benefiting from their base “waking up” in red districts. […] Read more »
The Forecast with Harry Enten: Democrats poised to take the House, GOP likely retains control in Senate
Today, we launched The Forecast. We’ll be letting you know, based on our data analysis, who is favored to win and lose in House and Senate races through the election. We’ll be aggregating those individual estimates to forecast who has the best chance of controlling the House and Senate. … […] Read more »