Republicans don’t have a lot of exposure in the Senate this year — but they’re doing what they can to help Democrats make the most of it. The GOP entered this election cycle with only eight of their own seats up for grabs. Republican incumbents retired in three of those seats, however, and while Democrats don’t really stand a chance in Utah — where Mitt Romney will almost certainly succeed Orrin Hatch — the races to replace Sen. Jeff Flake in Arizona and Sen. Bob Corker in Tennessee are highly competitive.
In addition, Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran’s early retirement this spring triggered a special election that will add to the Nov. 6 docket and that also gives Democrats a plausible chance at a pickup. Just how plausible? Read on. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight