A recent article in the Washington Post suggested that President Donald Trump’s election may have been helped by probability forecasts of an almost-certain victory by Hillary Clinton. CONT. David W. Moore, iMediaEthics Read more »
A Coronavirus Recession Could Doom Trump’s Reelection Chances
Key Points • The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. • Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. • A recession could seriously damage […] Read more »
Democrats named Biden, Sanders and Warren as their top picks 18 months ago. What did the primaries change?
Former vice president Joe Biden is now the presumptive Democratic nominee for president — after a primary involving months of campaigning, 28 Democratic candidates and over $1 billion in ads. Did any of that affect the result? Not much, our research suggests — but they weren’t meaningless. We’ll explain below. […] Read more »
Is Biden a shoo-in? Can Sanders come back? Here’s why predicting political outcomes is so hard
It’s been another tough political season for the pundits. Take Super Tuesday. On the Monday before the vote, a typical headline read something like this one from The Hill: “Sanders Poised for Big Super Tuesday.” On Wednesday, those headlines were replaced by ones like this from CNBC: “Super Tuesday results: […] Read more »
What history says about crises, approval ratings and a President running for reelection
… The way voters perceive how Trump and his administration are dealing with coronavirus could go a long way towards determining his reelection fate. And we can track that through his approval rating in the coming weeks and months. Trump’s approval rating is the most important datapoint to look at […] Read more »
Nate Silver: ‘Could Bernie still turn it around? Honestly, probably not’
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver on whether he thinks the 2020 Democratic primaries are over. This Week, ABC News Read more »