The financial markets are in a free fall, economists are debating the probability of the economy tipping into a recession, health experts are discussing whether the coronavirus epidemic has or will soon become a pandemic, and Joe Biden now looks increasingly like he will be the Democratic nominee. Other than […] Read more »
What Would It Take for Bernie Sanders to Win?
After another strong showing by former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in Tuesday’s primary contests, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont announced that he was staying in the race for president. But Mr. Sanders will need to do substantially better in the contests that remain to secure enough delegates to […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s got this
There’s every reason to believe former Vice President Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee outside of some statistically improbable event. Biden followed his impressive victories on Super Tuesday with another round of strong performances on Super Tuesday II, and it looks like he will continue his march toward the […] Read more »
Why Tonight’s Primary Results Are So Important for Bernie Sanders
The primary contests today could be the best and even last chance for Bernie Sanders to preserve his hope of winning the Democratic nomination. This might be his best chance for a simple reason: The states are relatively favorable for him, compared with the country over all. It might be […] Read more »
3 Ways The Next 2 Weeks Could Go: Even The Best Case Scenario For Sanders Doesn’t Look So Great
Our primary model is now extremely confident that former Vice President Joe Biden will win a majority of pledged delegates. … If that confidence seems misplaced — and keep in mind, our forecasts are usually more conservative than other statistical algorithms — it may be because Biden’s ascent has been […] Read more »
The candidate you like is the one you think is most electable
Most people vote for the candidate they think is the most electable. Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images Marjorie Hershey, Indiana University Electability has been the single most important force motivating voters in the 2020 Democratic primaries. But what is it? What makes one candidate seem like they could […] Read more »