… Presidents are clearly punished for bad times and rewarded when the economy is strong. But do presidents really control the economy? Reasonable people may differ, but if they were honest, most who’ve tried pulling those levers from the White House would probably agree their influence is not as great […] Read more »
Yes, Biden is more likely than Sanders to beat Trump. Here’s how we know.
Many Democratic politicians and voters rallied strongly behind Joe Biden both before and after Super Tuesday, aiming to halt what appeared to be Bernie Sanders’s momentum. Many did so because they feared Sanders is too ideologically extreme to beat Donald Trump in November. Were they right? In short, probably so. […] Read more »
The Latest Cook Political Report Electoral College Map
With the country on the precipice of a major health and economic crisis, we are clearly headed into uncharted waters. At the same time, when it comes to politics and an election that’s just eight months away, we can only work with the information we have today and adjust accordingly. […] Read more »
Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman
… Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948. Now, we’re still more than half a year away from the election. It would be easy to dismiss Biden’s advantage […] Read more »
Americans have increasingly dismal views of the economy, but they don’t blame Trump
… In new survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the percentage of Americans who believe the economy is worse than a year ago has increased dramatically — to 46 percent in the most recent survey from 18 percent only a month ago. … The question, however, […] Read more »
Pandemic and Stock Market Losses Haven’t Dented Trump’s Numbers … Yet
The thoughts and concerns of most people these days are focused on their families, friends, neighbors, and colleagues. Zooming out, they’re also concerned about the impact the coronavirus pandemic will have on the economy, their job, and their place of businesses. But for those in the political business—or addicted to […] Read more »