President Trump and Joe Biden begin the general election campaign locked in a highly competitive contest that remains fought along the lines of the 2016 presidential election, according to national and battleground state polls. If anyone holds the early edge, it is Mr. Biden. He leads by an average of […] Read more »
2020 is shaping up to be all about Trump
President Donald Trump has dominated the airwaves during the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden, the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, has struggled to break through, which some see as a problem for his campaign. But I disagree. As Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale notes, they don’t want […] Read more »
Trump Is Behind In A Way That Could Swing The 2020 Election
Wisconsin is a crucial state for the upcoming presidential election. Hillary Clinton lost the state in 2016 by about 27,000 votes. Along with losing Michigan (by about 12,000 votes) and Pennsylvania (by about 68,000 votes), those three states handed President Trump the electoral college victory. So, can Joe Biden do […] Read more »
How job losses could affect Trump and the 2020 election
President Donald Trump has seen his approval ratings tilt upward because of his response to the coronavirus pandemic. Unfortunately, the US economy is in a tailspin because of that same pandemic. … The relationship between the state of the economy and a president’s fortunes is one of the clearest in […] Read more »
How to Read Polls Amidst a Crisis
… Call it cherry-picking or call it confirmation bias: Some people tend to pay more attention to polls that reflect well on their favored candidate, party, or cause. Others are guilty of seizing upon the most recent poll and assuming that God has spoken, without taking into account that one […] Read more »
Rating Changes: Democrats edge slightly ahead, but presidential race still a toss-up
Key Points • We are not dramatically revising our outlook for the presidential election, at least not yet. • That said, several rating changes in the Electoral College and Senate generally benefit Democrats. • Many governors are getting high marks for their responses to the crisis; even for those elected […] Read more »