What’s going to happen in the November 2020 presidential election? Obviously, that’s on the minds of quite a few political observers these days, and it would be even if we weren’t in the middle of a pandemic. And some are questioning whether the pandemic will scramble the election and everything […] Read more »
The fight for the Senate: A pinkie on the scale for Democrats?
Last September, I wrote in this space that small developments had given Democrats “some reason for optimism about next year’s fight for the Senate.” But I also noted the party would “need an upset or two to win control of the chamber next November.” More than seven months later, circumstances […] Read more »
Trump’s approval rally has disappeared
… Trump received a clear boost in his approval rating as the coronavirus pandemic began to grip the country. His net approval rating (approval – disapproval) among voters shot up to its highest point since the first month of his presidency. But now, just weeks later, Trump’s popularity has been […] Read more »
What Is This Election Going to Be About?
… The Trump reelection strategy has long been to keep his base not only intact but enthusiastic, with economic growth being the not-so-secret sauce that would get them to 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular vote. But now Trump finds himself racing against the clock, trying to get economic […] Read more »
Trump Struggling to Match Job Approval in Polling
Key Points• There is a substantial and persistent difference among pollsters’ findings with respect to Donald Trump’s job approval and his percentage against Joe Biden.• Biden’s ability to consolidate the anti-Trump vote will be decisive.• Trump’s statewide job approval is almost exactly what one would predict given his 2016 share […] Read more »
These Are Our Priors For The General Election
Now that Democrats have settled on a presumptive nominee, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses their priors for the 2020 presidential contest. While seven months — and an unfolding crisis — separate us from election day, the 2020 election appears to have similar patterns to 2016’s — for now. The […] Read more »