We are now about six months from the general election, and while the national party conventions won’t make it official until August, President Trump will face former Vice President Joe Biden in November (barring something very unexpected happening). So the question we’re left with now is: When should you start […] Read more »
Tweets of Note
While 2020 may very well defy historical patterns, in elections over the past five decades an incumbent president's approval rating at ~200 days out has been a remarkably strong predictor of his ultimate vote share. Trump's current rating puts him in Carter & GHW Bush territory. pic.twitter.com/pyvZA1q6St — Patrick Egan […] Read more »
Trump’s ‘secret stash’ of voters
… Given that we are in the middle of a national health care crisis, wouldn’t it make sense not to draw sweeping conclusions about 2020 until things settle down? Handicappers of old may not use all the snazzy models of today, but we always had one rule of thumb on […] Read more »
The Senate: Watch the Top of the Ticket
Key Points• Incumbent senators almost never lose reelection in presidential years when their party’s presidential candidate wins their state.• Democrats need to net four seats to win an outright majority in the Senate and three seats to tie it. In the case of a Senate tie, the vice president casts […] Read more »
The Democrats’ House Polling Lead: Remarkably Steady
Key Points• The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency.• Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help.• We have seven House rating […] Read more »
Does Trump have a secret stash of voters?
President Trump currently trails his presumptive Democratic opponent, former vice president Joe Biden, in nearly every national public opinion poll. But a closer look at the data reveals he may have a secret stash of voters that makes the race closer than it currently appears. CONT. Henry Olsen, Washington Post […] Read more »