538’s Nate Silver on whether or not he thinks the Senate is in play in the 2020 election. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Democrats are slight favorites for Senate control
… To gain Senate control from Republicans in November’s elections, Democrats will need a net gain of three seats (if former Vice President Joe Biden holds onto his lead over President Donald Trump and claims victory) or four seats (if Trump wins). An early look at the data finds that […] Read more »
Don’t pretend to know how Justin Amash’s run will affect the election
On Tuesday, Republican-turned-independent Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan announced that he’s exploring a presidential run as a Libertarian — and Democrats and NeverTrump conservatives across the country freaked out. The logic behind the panic attack? Amash will grab Trump-skeptical former Republicans who might otherwise vote for Democratic nominee Joe Biden […] Read more »
Capturing the COVID-19 Crisis
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we dig deep into the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll about the COVD-19 pandemic. Do Americans want the U.S. economy reopened? Who is better handling the pandemic, President Donald Trump or state governors? And, what is the impact on the economy and the presidential […] Read more »
Can This President Be Reelected In An Economy This Bad?
As April began and Americans were being told to fear COVID-19 and stay home, President Trump said there would not need to be a “massive recession.” As recently as Monday, he said the economy would have “a tremendous third quarter.” By Wednesday, he was looking forward to “a fourth quarter […] Read more »
The Senate: Looking Beyond the “Core Four”
Key Points• The focus on the evenly-matched battle for the Senate has in some ways narrowed to four GOP-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina.• Practically speaking, Democrats probably have to win all four, and the White House, to win the Senate.• However, the map may be expanding. Democrats’ […] Read more »