Key Points
• The focus on the evenly-matched battle for the Senate has in some ways narrowed to four GOP-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina.
• Practically speaking, Democrats probably have to win all four, and the White House, to win the Senate.
• However, the map may be expanding. Democrats’ best bet among the other targets probably is Montana, but we still see a small Republican edge there.
• We are making two rating changes this week on the periphery of the Senate map: Alaska and South Carolina move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. CONT.
Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball