… Given that we are in the middle of a national health care crisis, wouldn’t it make sense not to draw sweeping conclusions about 2020 until things settle down?
Handicappers of old may not use all the snazzy models of today, but we always had one rule of thumb on which many of us relied: For incumbents, what you see is what you get.
I’ve watched thousands of races, and in all but a few, an incumbent trailing in a race can’t count on getting most of the undecided voters. If, after years in office, he or she hasn’t sold himself or herself to voters, then that incumbent is unlikely to win late-deciders or reelection. CONT.
Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call