Further polling since the Republican National Convention has tended to confirm our impressions from earlier this week: Donald Trump has almost certainly gotten a convention bounce, and has moved into an extremely close race with Hillary Clinton. … Trump’s position in our polls-plus forecast, which adjusts for convention bounces, is […] Read more »
Convention Polling Bounces Are Like Sugar Highs
… Convention bounces are sometimes described as sugar highs, providing a sudden jolt, often followed swiftly by a crash. Pollsters caution they shouldn’t be given too much weight because surveys taken around the conventions can be skewed. “It’s a very noisy time in polling, especially during the next six weeks,” […] Read more »
Election Update: Trump Gets Convention Bounce, Drawing Polls To Dead Heat
The first few polls conducted after last week’s Republican convention suggested a small to medium convention bounce for Donald Trump, with Hillary Clinton holding on to narrow leads in several surveys. But a series of polls released Monday morning show bigger gains for Trump. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Is Trump Getting A Convention Bump?
Polls taken during and after the Republican National Convention, which concluded on Thursday in Cleveland, generally show Donald Trump continuing to gain ground on Hillary Clinton, making for a close national race. But it’s customary for candidates to receive a “bounce” in the polls after their convention. There’s not yet […] Read more »
Don’t Pay Too Much Attention to Polls for a While
Donald Trump officially became the Republican party’s nominee Thursday night, and on Monday, the Democratic convention begins in Philadelphia. In the coming weeks, you can expect lots of polls — and headlines — suggesting new insight into the state of the presidential race. With some caveats, our advice is: Don’t […] Read more »
What to Expect When You’re Expecting a Bounce
The convention bounce is a long-established pattern in presidential election cycles. … So what kind of bounce should we expect for Trump and Clinton? For two reasons, it’s a fairly complicated question for Trump: First, the Democratic National Convention immediately follows the Republican National Convention, which may stifle Trump’s uptick […] Read more »