Either Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Donald Trump, or Trump and Clinton are virtually tied and the momentum is with the Republican. … At this point, you can do one of two things. You can pick the poll that you want to believe (as many do), or you […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004
There has been a lot of polling over the past few days in advance of the Republican National Convention, which got underway Monday in Cleveland. But it mostly confirmed the conclusion our election forecast models had arrived at late last week: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 3 or 4 […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Has a 76% Chance to Win the Presidency
For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the United States. … This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and […] Read more »
The presidential election polls agree on one thing: Voters rue their choices
The GOP convention has brought a surfeit of new polls, and although they differ slightly on the standing of the two major candidates, they concur that voters don’t like their choices. … Rather than flocking to a third choice, many voters are being driven by negative feelings about the candidate […] Read more »
Everything you need to know about how political conventions affect the horse race
The Republican convention starts Monday, with the Democratic convention to follow next week. Neither convention promises much drama about whom the ultimate nominee will be. But conventions don’t have to be cliffhangers to be important. Indeed, from the standpoint of who will ultimately win in November, the conventions are arguably […] Read more »
Beyond the Bounce
The GOP and Democratic political conventions are finally upon us. They will be scored by the media for tone and how well each side makes its case to Americans. No sooner will the gavel end these proceedings for campaign 2016, then those of us in the public opinion community will […] Read more »