Further polling since the Republican National Convention has tended to confirm our impressions from earlier this week: Donald Trump has almost certainly gotten a convention bounce, and has moved into an extremely close race with Hillary Clinton. …
Trump’s position in our polls-plus forecast, which adjusts for convention bounces, is almost unchanged over the past week; the model continues to give him about a 40 percent chance of winning the election, meaning that Clinton has a 60 percent chance.
Without adjusting for the convention bounce, however, the election is a dead heat. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight