The convention bounce is a long-established pattern in presidential election cycles. …
So what kind of bounce should we expect for Trump and Clinton? For two reasons, it’s a fairly complicated question for Trump: First, the Democratic National Convention immediately follows the Republican National Convention, which may stifle Trump’s uptick to some extent, as it may have hurt Mitt Romney’s bounce in 2012. And second, Clinton is expected to announce her vice presidential selection on Friday or Saturday, a very obvious attempt to eat into Trump and the GOP’s news cycle. CONT.
Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball