Key Points • The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. • Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. • A recession could seriously damage […] Read more »
In an uncertain moment, Trump takes refuge in a familiar place: Fake poll numbers
… At a time when it’s imperative that people heed the advice of the president when he instructs them to stay home and prevent the spread of a highly contagious virus, a majority of Americans simply don’t trust Trump to provide accurate information. That’s not just my opinion; a poll […] Read more »
How Uncertainty Around The Coronavirus Affects Our Life And Politics
The spread of the new coronavirus has upended American life overnight. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much we don’t know about the crisis when trying to assess its impact on life and politics. They also discuss how the virus is affecting plans of […] Read more »
Is Biden a shoo-in? Can Sanders come back? Here’s why predicting political outcomes is so hard
It’s been another tough political season for the pundits. Take Super Tuesday. On the Monday before the vote, a typical headline read something like this one from The Hill: “Sanders Poised for Big Super Tuesday.” On Wednesday, those headlines were replaced by ones like this from CNBC: “Super Tuesday results: […] Read more »
What history says about crises, approval ratings and a President running for reelection
… The way voters perceive how Trump and his administration are dealing with coronavirus could go a long way towards determining his reelection fate. And we can track that through his approval rating in the coming weeks and months. Trump’s approval rating is the most important datapoint to look at […] Read more »
COVID-19 Crisis
As the nation faces the COVID-19 pandemic, the Poll Hub team digs into the poll data about the virus. What are Americans’ views about the nation’s preparedness to deal with the virus? Where does President Donald Trump’s job approval rating stand in the midst of the crisis, and what are […] Read more »