The one constant in these last three and a half years has been chaos. Almost every week, there is an event, issue or moment that looks as if it may upend our current political stasis or rattle the economy. But so far, nothing, not a government shutdown, nor impeachment, nor […] Read more »
News About the AAPOR Annual Conference
After two days of deliberation, AAPOR Executive Council has unanimously voted not to hold the 75th Annual Conference in person in Atlanta this May. CONT. American Association for Public Opinion Research Read more »
Joe Biden’s got this
There’s every reason to believe former Vice President Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee outside of some statistically improbable event. Biden followed his impressive victories on Super Tuesday with another round of strong performances on Super Tuesday II, and it looks like he will continue his march toward the […] Read more »
Sanders’s Big Problem Isn’t the Delegate Math. It’s the Voters.
Bernie Sanders needed to fundamentally change the trajectory of the Democratic primary race after decisive defeats last week on Super Tuesday. After Tuesday’s contests, even a fundamental shift might not be enough. Joe Biden’s victories in Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Idaho confirm that he has seized a commanding national advantage, […] Read more »
Why Tonight’s Primary Results Are So Important for Bernie Sanders
The primary contests today could be the best and even last chance for Bernie Sanders to preserve his hope of winning the Democratic nomination. This might be his best chance for a simple reason: The states are relatively favorable for him, compared with the country over all. It might be […] Read more »
3 Ways The Next 2 Weeks Could Go: Even The Best Case Scenario For Sanders Doesn’t Look So Great
Our primary model is now extremely confident that former Vice President Joe Biden will win a majority of pledged delegates. … If that confidence seems misplaced — and keep in mind, our forecasts are usually more conservative than other statistical algorithms — it may be because Biden’s ascent has been […] Read more »