The coronavirus has completely overtaken American life and politics, but in polls, most people don’t name it as their top voting issue. Political observers agree that what happens with the virus over the next few months is likely to determine the outcome of the November presidential election, but what they […] Read more »
Presidential Job Approval Related to Reelection Historically
President Donald Trump’s prospects of winning a second term in office will be closely tied to the level of his job approval rating. Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost. CONT. Jeffrey […] Read more »
GOP operatives worry Trump will lose both the presidency and Senate majority
… Republican strategists are increasingly worried that Trump is headed for defeat in November and that he may drag other Republicans down with him. Seven GOP operatives not directly associated with the President’s reelection campaign told CNN that Trump’s response to the pandemic and the subsequent economic fallout have significantly […] Read more »
Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden
Key Points• Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump.• The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results.• This suggests that pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures […] Read more »
How Accurate Are State Polls? And What Could That Mean For November?
Our latest recap of the accuracy of polling in American elections reinforced something we’ve been saying for a while: The polls are all right. In particular, polls of presidential general elections have historically been quite accurate. … However, it is not unusual for state polls to be less accurate than […] Read more »
Senate Republicans’ Spending Is Almost Entirely Defensive
Enough of the talk about the possibility of another split between electoral and popular votes for president, which would be the third in 20 years. Here’s a better challenge for 2020 election aficionados: First, if Republicans only hold onto one thing, is it more likely to be the White House […] Read more »