We’ve learned the lesson multiple times in the last few decades: There is no national presidential election. Candidates can get fewer votes and win, if they win enough states containing a majority of electoral votes. That’s something President Donald Trump may hope happens again, because the national polls have had […] Read more »
On the Rise
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the nation faces heightened racial tensions as demonstrators across the United States make their voices heard following the police-involved death of George Floyd. The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll has brand new numbers out on how Americans perceive the protests, how local police officers are […] Read more »
Incumbents usually are penalized in times of unrest
… The truth is that we really don’t know how recent events will alter the contours of this year’s presidential race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. History merely provides a road map with a number of different paths of how the public will react. … […] Read more »
Trump Campaign Looks at Electoral Map and Doesn’t Like What It Sees
President Trump is facing the bleakest outlook for his re-election bid so far, with his polling numbers plunging in both public and private surveys and his campaign beginning to worry about his standing in states like Ohio and Iowa that he carried by wide margins four years ago. … In […] Read more »
The Data Behind Police Violence
Protests have spread across the country in the week since George Floyd died after a Minneapolis police officer kneeled on his neck for more the eight minutes. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, FiveThirtyEight contributor Samuel Sinyangwe joins the crew to analyze the trends in police violence over […] Read more »
Biden’s in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden clearly ahead of President Donald Trump. Biden’s up by a 53% to 43% margin among registered voters in this survey. But it’s important to put individual polls into context, and that context continues to show Biden’s in one […] Read more »