More than two months ago, even before COVID-19 became all-consuming in our lives, I wrote a column arguing that the presidential race had changed from a toss-up/tilting Democratic to leaning Democratic. That significant change had nothing to do with the coronavirus. Instead, it followed from changes in the fundamentals of […] Read more »
The Only (Other) Poll That Matters? Exit Polls and Election Night Forecasts in BBC General Election Results
This article examines the role of results forecasts and exit polls in BBC general election night broadcasts from 1955 to 2017. Despite the substantial role played by academics in results programmes, in devising forecasts and analysing results as they emerge, academic literature on election night broadcasts is scant. This article […] Read more »
Biden is running ahead of Clinton’s 2016 pace
… Almost any time I explain that Biden’s leading Trump, someone will inevitably bring up “but what about 2016.” That’s why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign. It’s one of the first times during the election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton’s […] Read more »
Georgia is a swing state in 2020
Democrats have Georgia on their minds. When former Vice President Joe Biden’s team presented their electoral strategy in mid-May, Georgia was one of three states, along with Arizona and Texas, that they believed they could compete in, even though those places haven’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in at […] Read more »
Finding a New Normal
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we provide our in-depth analysis of our new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. Are Americans concerned about a second coronavirus wave? When do they think daily life will get back to some sense of normal? We have the answers. Then, it’s a highly controversial […] Read more »
How the Trump Effect Could Lift Democratic Senate Candidates
A driving theme of Republican Party politics circa 2020 is consolidation. The G.O.P. has tightened its ranks; its reliable voters, hovering at around 40 percent of the electorate, tend to approve of almost anything President Trump does. Yet throughout his term, from the 2017 battles over health care and tax […] Read more »