FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver doesn’t buy that President Trump’s fate is sealed. He breaks down the data on the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on Trump’s reelection chances. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Trump is behind in a state no Republican has won the presidency without in 96 years
… Trump hasn’t led in a single Florida poll since early March. The fact that the polls in Florida favor Biden should be one of the biggest warning signs yet for Trump’s fledgling campaign. Yes, we still have 100 days to go, and history does suggest that the gap in […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of July 25
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
The polls show Biden is a clear favorite 100 days out from an unprecedented election
Believe it or not, we’re now 100 days and 15 hours from the 2020 election. As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. A look at history reveals that while Biden’s clearly […] Read more »
Fighting the Last Polling War
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team shares the findings of a new NBC News/Marist Poll study which debunks the commonly held claim that weighting 2016 battleground state polls by education would have improved their accuracy. The Poll Hub team explains how an analysis of the 2019 gubernatorial […] Read more »
Mining the Polls for Some Kernels of Hope for Trump
When a president or party is going through a really tough time, it’s easy for a political columnist to come across like a broken record, a constant stream of bad news that draws suspicions of bias. … So in the interest of fairness, let me state: The three major polls […] Read more »