Given its track record in presidential campaigns over the last 20 years, it’s hard to think of Florida as anything other than a Toss Up. Since 2000, the winner of the state has never carried it by more than 5 points. In fact, in four of the last five presidential […] Read more »
In nearly every swing state at this point, Biden is outperforming Obama and Clinton
… While Trump and his allies have consistently raised his unexpected victory in 2016 as a reason to dismiss what the polls say, highlighting national polling pointing to a Clinton win in particular, 2020 doesn’t look like 2016 at this point. Biden’s not only outperforming where Clinton was at the […] Read more »
White Flight From Trump? What a Decisive Biden Win Could Look Like
Recent national polls show that Joe Biden’s commanding lead has eroded longstanding demographic divisions that have favored Republicans, endangering their hold on a tier of states where the Democratic Party usually has little chance to prevail in federal elections, even Republican strongholds like Kansas or Alaska. … Remarkably, Mr. Trump’s […] Read more »
Here’s how NBC News is working to improve its state polling in 2020
In 2016, the polls were more right than wrong. The final national surveys had Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump ahead by an average of 3 points; Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2 points. But some state polling missed the mark badly, especially in Midwest and Rust […] Read more »
No, the polls aren’t undersampling Republicans
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a clear advantage in the national polls. Perhaps not wanting to acknowledge Biden’s edge, some Republicans, including in President Donald Trump’s own circle, claim that the polls are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans. Often, they point to the 2016 exit polls. An in-depth […] Read more »
Who’s behind Trump’s big polling deficit? Two key groups defecting to Biden.
In the wake of a pandemic and the protests following George Floyd’s death, voters’ support for President Donald Trump has tanked. His average deficit against Joe Biden in national polls has ballooned from 6 percentage points in March to 9 points in July. … But a closer look at the […] Read more »