“I’m not losing,” President Trump insisted in an interview on Sunday with the Fox News anchor Chris Wallace after being presented with the cable network’s latest poll, which showed former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. with an eight-point advantage nationally. The president, who often promotes poll numbers when they […] Read more »
What two high-quality polls tell us about the presidential race
… There are a lot of professionally done polls out there, but over the years, I haven’t been hesitant to offer particularly kind words about the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and the Fox News poll. They tend not to jump around wildly, which is fine with me since, barring […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s advantage over Trump with Black voters is currently smaller than Hillary Clinton’s was
The death of George Floyd and subsequent protests reshaped the presidential race. It brought race relations, racism and police brutality to the forefront. In that time, former Vice President Joe Biden’s advantage over President Donald Trump expanded from about six points to closer to 10 points. Interestingly, however, Trump continues […] Read more »
Why Trump can’t make the election about Biden
Reality counts. That may be the biggest message of the 2020 presidential campaign so far. While President Donald Trump shuffles his campaign staff and more Republicans grumble that he has failed to formulate a clear message and stick to it, a wide array of public and private polls signal that […] Read more »
CNN Poll of Polls: Biden maintains double-digit lead over Trump nationally, with coronavirus a top issue
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a significant 12-point margin nationally, according to a CNN Poll of Polls released Monday. Biden garners 52% support among registered voters, with 40% supporting Trump. The poll of polls includes the five most recent national telephone polls measuring the views […] Read more »
There Aren’t Secret Trump Voters
A recent Monmouth poll showed that a majority of Pennsylvanians — 57 percent — believe there are “secret voters” in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the […] Read more »