The presidential elections of the 21st century have taught us to expect the unexpected. Still, as the current race heads into the post-Labor Day home stretch, some fundamentals have become clear. The presidential race has been astonishingly stable through a tumultuous summer. At the beginning of June, the FiveThirtyEight average […] Read more »
Electoral College Rating Changes: Florida and Nevada Shift Right
Today we are making two ratings changes in Pres. Trump’s favor, moving Florida from Lean Democrat to Toss Up, and Nevada from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. Biden’s Electoral College lead has narrowed to 279 to 187 for Trump. Earlier this summer, Biden held a 308 to 187 lead. CONT. […] Read more »
Frank Luntz: Can Donald Trump win?
With just two months until the US presidential election, the polls show the incumbent Donald Trump trailing Democrat Joe Biden by a significant margin. Can he turn it around? CONT. HARDtalk, BBC The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign […] Read more »
All the ‘Rage’: Where the 2020 presidential race stands
With the two national conventions in the rearview mirror and the 2020 election less than two months away, President Donald Trump still finds himself in a deep hole and needing to change the trajectory of the presidential race. … Biden remains a clear favorite in the race. As I have […] Read more »
The 2016 and 2020 races: What’s different?
… Modelers at FiveThirtyEight give Biden a 71 percent chance of winning, while The Economist’s statisticians set the chances at 84 percent. But not so fast. One could travel back to September 2016, substitute Hillary Clinton for Biden and The New York Times for The Economist, and written the same […] Read more »
How Biden is pressing a two-front war against Trump
Joe Biden has described himself as a “bridge” between the Democrats’ current and future generations of leaders. But he may also be a bridge between its present and future on the electoral map. Exactly eight weeks before Election Day, Biden has strong opportunities to recapture states that President Donald Trump […] Read more »