The presidential elections of the 21st century have taught us to expect the unexpected. Still, as the current race heads into the post-Labor Day home stretch, some fundamentals have become clear.
The presidential race has been astonishingly stable through a tumultuous summer. At the beginning of June, the FiveThirtyEight average of national polls showed Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49.2% to 42.9%. By September 9, Biden’s average had ticked up to 50.7% while Trump’s was unchanged at 42.9%.
The explanation for the stability is straightforward. When an incumbent president is running for reelection, his share of the popular votes tends to mirror his job approval. CONT.
William A. Galston, Brookings Institution