… Trump’s campaign flourished in 2016 even after saying then-Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a former prisoner of war, was “not a war hero.” He won a larger share of the primary vote from active and former military members than he did from other Republican voters, according to an academically […] Read more »
Trump’s law and order campaign isn’t working
… The big question coming out of the major party conventions would be if they would reset the 2020 campaign. Could Trump’s efforts to refocus the campaign on crime and law and order help him close what has been a consistent deficit? The answer seems to be a no, for […] Read more »
Democrats are leading in the polls. That means it’s time for them to panic.
The summer is coming to the close of an even-numbered year and Democrats are up in the polls, which means it’s time for them to freak out about the upcoming election. Democrats are nothing if not a self-doubting bunch, and the 2016 election left such a psychic scar that many […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Sept. 6
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Biden’s lead over Trump is the steadiest on record
… Biden holds about an average 7 point advantage over Trump in polls taken since the beginning of the year. That’s about the same as his current lead of 8 points in an average of recent polls. It’s not much different than the 6 point edge Biden had over Trump […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s true lead is smaller than it appears
Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. Given that we’re past both major party conventions and closing in on Labor Day, the only fair conclusion to reach is that Biden’s the favorite. Yet, it continues to be clear that the […] Read more »