Long election nights are what make junkies go wild and partisans go crazy. It’s been 144 years since the Electoral College (how we decide our presidents) was last decided by a mere 1 electoral vote. Chances are that whoever wins the presidency will have a more comfortable margin than winning […] Read more »
If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electoral College
As he had in 2016, it appears that President Trump has an advantage in the Electoral College, setting him up to potentially win reelection while again losing the popular vote. On this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how big Trump’s […] Read more »
Which Candidate Do Voters Trust to Handle the Unrest?
The trips this week to Kenosha, Wis., by President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. laid bare the political bets both presidential candidates are making about how voters will respond to the scenes of unrest playing out in some American cities. … For pollsters, who use straightforward questions to take […] Read more »
Poll-pourri: An analysis of the slew of post-convention polls
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the week welcomed a flood of post-convention polls. We dissect the findings and the various methodologies used. Plus, now that we have the numbers, we share our final word on the issue of a post-convention bounce. Then, we’re moving onto the presidential debates. […] Read more »
With Two Months To Go, a Steady Presidential Race
These last two weeks provided Pres. Trump the best opportunity to change the trajectory of this race. His GOP convention offered a rosy (and inaccurate) portrayal of a president who effectively tackled the coronavirus pandemic. Both during and since the convention, Republicans and the president have focused intensely on the […] Read more »
Nobody can predict this election. Here’s why.
By almost any measure, 2020 is a very different kind of election. A pandemic. A recession. Social protests in multiple cities that are entering their fourth month. Record numbers out of work, and record highs in the stock market. Social distancing in offices, restaurants, even in some homes. The oldest […] Read more »